Where we are
Growth and inflation are both cooling
10-year real yield made the week's most unusual move. The nine forces below are rebuilt every weekday from public government and market data. No forecasts — this is what the data already shows.
Our public-data macro model
2026 Q3 · internally we call this Quad 4
Growth
-0.13 pp
decelerating · +2.07% year over year
Inflation
-0.36 pp
decelerating · +3.50% year over year
Computed by us from FRED GDPC1 and CPIAUCNS -- US government statistics, no API key. Growth and inflation are each the change in their year-over-year rate, for the latest quarter the agencies have actually reported. Nothing here is licensed from anyone. Last computed 2026-10-29 (today).
What moved unusually this week
- 10-year real yield -0.09% — a bigger one-week move than 73% of the past two years (as of 2026-10-28)
- High-yield credit spread -0.13% — a bigger one-week move than 73% of the past two years (as of 2026-10-28)
- Yield curve (10Y - 2Y) +0.06% — a bigger one-week move than 71% of the past two years (as of 2026-10-29)
- Financial conditions +0.01 — a bigger one-week move than 59% of the past two years (as of 2026-10-23)
The nine forces we watch
10-year real yield
2.67%-0.09
Tailwind
The single biggest driver of long-duration tech. Higher real rates make future profits worth less today.
as of 2026-10-28
10-year Treasury
5.05%-0.08
Tailwind
The rate everything else is priced against.
as of 2026-10-28
Inflation expectations
2.35%+0.03
Neutral
What the bond market thinks inflation will average over ten years.
as of 2026-10-29
US dollar
121.32-0.08
Tailwind
A strong dollar tightens conditions everywhere and squeezes overseas earnings.
as of 2026-10-23
High-yield credit spread
3.14%-0.13
Tailwind
The extra yield demanded to hold risky company debt. Narrowing means appetite for risk is healthy.
as of 2026-10-28
Financial conditions
-0.49+0.01
Headwind
The Chicago Fed's summary of how easy money is to get. Below zero is easier than average.
as of 2026-10-23
Fed balance sheet
$6.75T-0.01T
Headwind
The tide of liquidity behind every asset price.
as of 2026-10-28
VIX
16.91+0.23
Headwind
What options cost. A sharp fall says the market has stopped paying up for protection.
as of 2026-10-28
Yield curve (10Y - 2Y)
0.37%+0.06
Neutral
Positive means no recession warning. A sustained inversion is the classic late-cycle signal.
as of 2026-10-29
Scoreboard: 4 supportive, 3 working against, 2 neutral. Every figure carries the date it was published; a stale figure keeps its own date rather than being shown as current. Public data only — the Federal Reserve (FRED), the BEA, the BLS and market prices. Informational only, not investment advice. Rebuilt 2026-10-29 18:24 CDT.
📚 What people are reading about
Wikipedia pageviews (official, free) · last checked 2026-10-29 18:24 CDT · 6 of 6 topics read · newest reading 2026-10-28
| Topic | Against its own year | Readers / day |
|---|---|---|
| AI boom / bubble the concentration risk in this market | Normal (within its usual range) | 1219 7-day avg 1080.6 vs 1064 (+2%) |
| Inflation price-level anxiety | Normal (within its usual range) | 843 7-day avg 662.6 vs 722.9 (-8%) |
| Layoffs labour-market stress | Normal (within its usual range) | 149 7-day avg 146.1 vs 122.3 (+20%) |
| Market crash tail-risk attention | Normal (within its usual range) | 306 7-day avg 378.7 vs 331.4 (+14%) |
| Recession the word people look up when growth scares them | Normal (within its usual range) | 301 7-day avg 286.1 vs 280.7 (+2%) |
| Unemployment labour-market stress, slower moving | Normal (within its usual range) | 300 7-day avg 239.7 vs 240 (-0%) |
How many people read each Wikipedia article, ranked against that article's own trailing 365 days. A topic is flagged only above the 99.45th percentile, a level chosen on one period and checked on a later one it had not seen. This is unusual pageview activity — readership, not search volume, and not Google Trends. It says attention moved; it says nothing about prices, and no market effect is claimed. Reading interest usually follows the news rather than leading it. A topic without enough history says so rather than reading as normal.